A new survey of Ipespe, commissioned by brokerage XP Investimentos, released this Friday (13), shows former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leading the race for Palácio do Planalto. Click here to do the download in full.
With 44% of voting intentions, Lula has two percentage points less than all other candidates combined (46%). Considering the margin of error of more or less 3.2 points, PT still has a chance of winning in the first round. For this, he needs to numerically outnumber the votes of all opponents.
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Lula maintained the same percentage as in the previous survey, published 15 days ago. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro fluctuated positively by 1 percentage point and reached 32%. The survey confirms research published by other companies in recent days, pointing out that the reduction of advantage between the two, motivated by the departure of Sergio Moro (União Brasil) from the dispute, was interrupted.
After Lula and Bolsonaro, appears Ciro Gomes (PDT), with 8% of voting intentions. Former São Paulo governor João Doria (PSDB) has 3%, and federal deputy André Janones (Avante), 2%. Senator Simone Tebet (MDB) registered 1%. Luiz Felipe D’Avila (Novo), Vera Lucia (PSTU), José Maria Eymael (DC) and Luciano Bivar (União Brasil) did not score. Whites and nulls add up to 7% and do not know or did not respond, 3%.
In the most likely second round, Lula appeared with 54% of voting intentions, the same level as in the previous poll. Bolsonaro grew by one point and reached 35%. In other scenarios, PT also wins against Ciro Gomes and João Doria. Considering the margin of error, the current president would tie with the pedetista and the toucan.
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Ipespe conducted a telephone interview with 1,000 respondents, aged 16 or over, between May 9 and 11. The confidence level is 95.5%. The poll was registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-02603/2022. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
Analyze
On Twitter, political scientist Antônio Lavareda, responsible for electoral studies at Ipespe, analyzed the new edition of the survey. According to him, the scenario of the race for the Palácio do Planalto is one of “stiffness”, since the percentage of voters who have already defined their votes is much higher than what usually occurs in previous elections.
ABOUT THE IPESPE SURVEY RELEASED TODAY (MAY 13) HIGH INTEREST, COMBINED WITH THE UNUSUAL VOLUME OF SPONTANEOUS VOTING INTENT, HELP UNDERSTAND THE RELATIVE STRENGTHENING OF THE ELECTORAL FRAMEWORK. Let’s go to 🧵
– Antonio Lavareda (@LavaredaAntonio) May 13, 2022
Editing: Rebeca Cavalcante
