The week of the electoral race for the Presidency of the Republic was marked by the release of two new electoral polls. The two studies pointed to absolute stability in the pre-candidates vying for the seat at Palácio do Planalto.
According to the first of them, released on Monday (30) by the FSB, commissioned by the investment brokerage BTG, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would win the elections in the first round, if they were held today.
In the other, published this Friday (3) by Ipespe, commissioned by XP, the PT is at the same level of voting intentions, but does not exceed the sum of the other pre-candidates. The survey points to Lula’s victory in the second round against President Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
FSB/BTG and Lula’s victory in the first round
Former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leads the race with 46% of voting intentions, according to the FSB/BTG poll, released on Monday (30). According to the survey, if the elections were held today, Lula would be elected in the first round.
The survey is the first carried out by the companies after the withdrawal of former São Paulo governor João Doria, who was a pre-candidate for the PSDB. With the departure of the toucan, Lula grew 5 percentage points. Click here to do the download of the study in its entirety.
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Bolsonaro appears in second place, with 32%, in the main scenario tested, with 11 pre-candidates. Former minister and ex-governor of Ceará Ciro Gomes (PDT) appears in third position, with 9%.
Senator Simone Tebet (MDB) got 2%, while federal deputy André Janones (Avante) got 1%. Leonardo Péricles (UP), Luciano Bivar (União Brasil), Sofia Manzano (PCB), Vera Lucia (PSTU), Eymael (DC) and Felipe D’Ávila (Novo) did not score. White, null and undecided totaled 8% of respondents.
If only valid votes are considered, Lula has 51%, which would therefore guarantee victory in the first round, which Datafolha had already demonstrated on Thursday (26).
In the second round simulation, Lula appeared 19 points ahead of Jair Bolsonaro. The PT member added up to 54% of voting intentions, against 35% for the current chief executive.
The poll surveyed 2,000 voters aged 16 and over between May 27 and 29. The interviews were done by telephone. The survey confidence index is 95%. The survey was carried out by the FSB Institute, contracted by the BTG Pactual bank and registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under protocol number BR-03196/2022.
XP/Ipespe points Lula in the lead, with 46%
The survey released by Ipespe shows stability in relation to the same survey carried out a week earlier. All oscillations of pre-candidates occurred within the margin of error.
In the main scenario tested, Lula maintained 45% of the total voting intentions. His main opponent, President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), also repeated the performance of the previous poll, with 34%.
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Ciro Gomes fluctuated positively by 1 percentage point and reached 9% of voting intentions. Simone Tebet appeared with 3%, the same result as the previous survey. André Janones, Pablo Marçal and Vera Lúcia had 1%.
The study points out that Lula’s victory in the first round is not ruled out, since the distance between the sum of all other candidates (49%) and Lula’s score (45%) is less than 1 percentage point greater than the margin error, which is 3.2 percentage points.
In the most likely second round, the study shows that Lula beats Bolsonaro by 18 percentage points. The result was the same as last week: 53% to 35% of voting intentions for the former president.
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1,000 nationwide interviews were carried out on May 30, 31 and June 1. The research is registered with the TSE under the number BR-02893/2022. The maximum margin of error is 3.2 percentage points.
Editing: Rodrigo Durao Coelho