Two new polls released on the morning of Wednesday 6 show stability in the scenario of the presidential dispute in Brazil, with former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party) in the lead, followed by the current president, Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party). ).
According to the PoderData survey, Lula has 44% of the voting intentions and Bolsonaro, 36%. They are followed by the candidates Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labor Party), with 5% and André Janones (Avante Party) and Simone Tebet (Brazilian Democratic Movement), with 3% each. The candidates Luiz Felipe d’Avila (Novo Party), Pablo Marçal (Pros), Luciano Bivar (Brazil Union), Leonardo Péricles (Popular Unity), Eymael (Christian Democracy), Sofia Manzano (Brazilian Communist Party) and Vera Lúcia (Partido Unified Socialist Workers) do not reach 1%. Blanks and nulls add up to 5%, and 4% of those surveyed do not know or do not want to give their opinion.
According to the survey, former President Lula has one of his best performances in the Northeast, a region in which he leads Bolsonaro by 56% to 30%. The current president has the most expressive performance of him in the north of the country, where he has 56% against 36% of Lula.
The Workers’ Party (PT) candidate also has a big lead over Bolsonaro among women, youth, and low-income people, and the Liberal Party (PL) candidate is more popular among voters who win five or more minimum wage.
The Genial/Quaest poll indicates that Lula could win the presidential elections if the vote were held today. The PT candidate has 45% of the valid votes, compared to 42% of all the other contenders. The results are the same considering the margins of error of the surveys.
According to Genial/Quaest, in a scenario with 12 pre-candidates, Lula has 43% of the votes, against 31% for current president Jair Bolsonaro. Third place is occupied by Ciro Gomes with 6%, followed by André Janones and Simone Tebet with 2%. Pablo Marçal got 1%. The other candidates did not score.
Second round
Great/Quaest also simulated the attack in the second round. The survey shows that former president Lula would beat the current president, Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet. In the dispute with Bolsonaro, Lula obtains 53% and the current president, 34%. Against Ciro, Lula wins by 52% to 25%. Against Tebet, Lula has 55% against 20%.
Rejection
In terms of rejection, Bolsonaro appears in first place: 59% of voters say they would not vote for him. Ciro’s rejection rate is 53% and Lula’s is 41%.
The PoderData survey was conducted between July 3 and 5. Three thousand interviews were conducted through automated calls to landlines and cell phones. The Genial/Quaest survey was conducted between June 29 and July 2. Two thousand personal, home and face-to-face interviews were conducted. The margin of error for both polls is two percentage points.
Editing: Arturo Hartmann and Flavia Chacon
