Two new polls released in the morning of this Wednesday (6) show a stable scenario in Brazil’s presidential election race, with former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party) leading the polls, followed by current President Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party).
According to PoderData, Lula has 44% of voter support, and Bolsonaro has 36%. They are followed by Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labor Party), with 5%, and candidates André Janones (Avante) and Simone Tebet (Brazilian Democratic Movement), both with 3%. Luiz Felipe d’Avila (New Party), Pablo Marçal (Republican Party of Social Order), Luciano Bivar (Union Brazil), Leonardo Péricles (Popular Unity), Eymael (Christian Democracy), Sofia Manzano (Brazilian Communist Party), and Vera Lúcia (United Socialist Workers’ Party) did not reach 1% of voter support. White and null votes – which are, respectively, to cast none of the candidates by pressing a white button or typing a random number – accounted for 5% of respondents. Those who did not know what to answer were 4%.
According to this poll, former President Lula has one of his best results in the Northeast region, where he wins over Bolsonaro with 56% versus 30%. Bolsonaro has his best numbers among the population of northern Brazil, with 56% of voter support, while Lula holds 36%.
The Workers’ Party candidate has a big advantage over Bolsonaro among female, young and low-income voters, while Bolsonaro gets better results among voters whose income is five times or more the amount of the minimum wage.
Genial/Quaest poll shows that Lula could win the presidential election if it took place today. He has 45% of all the valid votes against 42% of all the other candidates’ votes combined. This poll’s results are the same as PoderData’s when considering their margin of error.
To the Genial/Quaest poll, in a scenario where there are 12 pre-candidates for the presidency, Lula holds 43% of the votes and Bolsonaro 31%. Ciro Gomes is in third place with 6%, followed by André Janones and Simone Tebet, both with 2% of voter support. Pablo Marçal got 1%, and the other candidates did not score.
Second round
Genial/Quaest poll also simulated a second round. It shows that former President Lula would win against Brazil’s current president, Ciro Gomes, and Simone Tebet. In a second round between Lula and Bolsonaro, the former has 53% of voter support, and the latter, 34%; Lula versus Ciro would have Lula winning with 25% more votes than Ciro. Lula versus Tebet would present 55% against 20%, respectively.
Rejection
In terms of voter rejection, Bolsonaro is at the top, with 59% of voters saying they would not vote for him. Ciro’s rejection rate is 53%, and Lula’s is 41%.
The PoderData poll was conducted between July 3 and 5, with 3,000 respondents interviewed via automated calls to landlines and cell phones. The Quaest poll was held between June 29 and July 2. Quaest conducted 2,000 personal, home, and face-to-face interviews. The margin of error for PoderData and Genial/Quaest polls is plus or minus two percentage points.
Edited by: Arthur Hartmann and Flavia Chacon
