Media think about why the West increased support for Ukraine
The concern suggests that the window of opportunity for Ukraine is not endless and that it needs powerful Western weapons in the near future.
Behind the decision to drastically increase military aid to Ukraine is concern in some Western capitals that time may be on Russia’s side, reports The Wall Street Journal.
As the newspaper writes, this concern indicates that the window of opportunity for Ukraine is not endless, and it needs powerful Western weapons in the near future to increase the momentum it achieved during the counter-offensive last year.
It is noted that last spring, when Russian troops retreated from Kyiv, Western governments hoped that the longer the fighting continued, the greater the likelihood of a Ukrainian victory. Western officials have said that if Europe and the US remain united after a hard winter, Russia’s economic problems and military setbacks, exacerbated by sanctions, could force Moscow to seek peace.
As the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine approaches, that certainty is fading. Officials in some capitals now fear that the Kremlin, which is willing to continue throwing men and equipment into the war, could gain the upper hand in a protracted war of attrition.
Because of this, it is better to provide Ukraine with more modern weapons that could help it change the dynamics of the war and undermine Russia’s combat capability.
The publication notes that the Russian army has suffered significant losses and lacks important military capabilities, in particular precision-guided missiles. Some of the toughest Western sanctions – such as the oil embargo and price cuts on Russian oil exports – are also just beginning to take effect. The Russian economy is forecast to experience a significant recession this year and its potential is likely to remain limited over the coming years.
However, there is no indication that the sanctions will stop the Russian military or cause such economic pressure on the Kremlin that it will undermine domestic support for the war, the article says.
The change in Western thinking about the need to speed up deliveries to Ukraine has been publicly revealed in recent days in the decisions of the US, UK and Germany to send Western-designed battle tanks to Ukraine.
Together with other armored vehicles and air defense systems, these weapons should help Ukraine not only repel any Russian offensive, but also provide Kyiv with the means to continue deep into Russian-occupied territory, putting it in a better position to negotiate.
The officials also noted that now public opinion in Europe and the United States remains unwavering in support of military and financial assistance to Ukraine, but Putin may hope that such support will not be sustainable during the years of war and changes of administrations in the United States and elsewhere.
Some officials are also concerned about how realistic the main goal articulated by supporters of increased military support is – a quick end to the conflict. There is also little faith in Western capitals that Putin will ever consider ending the conflict without conquering Ukraine.
Recall that according to the forecasts of the Institute for the Study of War, Russia may conduct several stages of offensive operations, the culmination of which will be the complete capture of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
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