If Brazil fulfills its promise to eliminate deforestation in the Amazon Forest and the Cerrado by the year 2030, there would be an increase in the world GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of up to R$ 1.2 trillion (equivalent to about US$ 240 billion).
The study was conducted by FGV researcher Bráulio Lopes, who took into account two variables: emissions – arising from burning – of gases that cause the greenhouse effect and the reduction of the forest (with the lowest absorption of carbon).
To arrive at the figure, Borges took into account the Social Cost of Carbon (CSC) measure per ton more in the atmosphere. In 2020, the value was US$ 185 per ton, a figure that should reach US$ 226 in 2030. This amount represents the cost of remedying the damage caused to the economy, people and the environment related to carbon emissions.
He calculated that the reduction registered between 2003 and 2011 generated R$ 4.2 trillion (US$ 818 billion) for the world GDP. The increase in deforestation between 2019 and 2022 caused a loss of R$1.02 trillion (US$201 billion).
Between August 2020 and July 2021, the Cerrado lost 8,500 km² of native vegetation / Jose Cruz/Agência Brasil
The economist claims that if the reduction in deforestation continues at a continuous pace, the two biomes would no longer generate losses for the world economy in 2027. To Folha de São Paulo, he stated that these gains are diluted over time
“These gains and losses affect the world economy over many years, as greenhouse gases have effects for centuries, and gains and losses are diluted over time. About five years ago, it was a utopia, but today it is clear the way in which Brazil can monetize preservation, through the carbon credit market”, says Borges.
Editing: Rodrigo Durão Coelho
