Ukraine is preparing a counteroffensive
After several months of deliveries of new Western weapons, Ukraine is preparing to launch a counteroffensive.
The West is waiting for the Ukrainian counteroffensive within the next two weeks. The military equipment promised by the partners is gradually brought to Ukraine. The first British Challenger tanks and German Leopard 2s are already in Ukraine. The Ukrainian counteroffensive will determine the course of the further development of the war and peace negotiations, the American edition of the Wall Street Journal notes.
How will the counteroffensive go?
Western experts believe that Ukraine’s prospects will depend on the ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to coordinate various types of troops in a counteroffensive, including artillery units, tank corps and infantry troops, that is, to conduct combined arms battles. The Ukrainian military has been training for months in Western Europe and the United States in precisely this kind of interaction using modern technology and large formations on the battlefield.
Ukraine cannot start with a “NATO-style assault” because neither side controls the skies. To drive out an enemy that has dug in – as Ukraine needs to do – the textbook approach of the US and its allies would be to start with a massive air attack using aircraft and cruise missiles. This is how the US started both wars in Iraq. However, in Ukraine, he recalls, neither side has a real advantage in the air.
Ukraine is likely to launch a large attack first – or several smaller attacks – using ground-based long-range precision weapons, including rockets and artillery, much of which were provided by Western allies, the WSJ believes. US M142 HIMARS or M270 mounts, as well as large howitzers, shoot projectiles with satellite control at a distance of up to 80 km. This range, combined with intelligence from Ukrainian and Western sources, should allow Kyiv to target Russian forces far behind the front lines. Over the past year, Ukrainian forces have dealt significant blows to Russian logistics bases, command centers and supply lines. The purpose of such strikes is to isolate units on the battlefield, undermine their combat effectiveness and sow chaos in the ranks of the Russians, recalls WSJ.
Where will the beat
Where exactly Ukraine will strike at Russian troops remains unknown. John Spencer, head of urban warfare research at New York-based think tank Madison Policy Forum, suggested that Kyiv wants to retain planning flexibility. The Ukrainian command is likely to look for the weakest points in the Russian defense and hold a strike force that could be deployed anywhere. According to him, it was this strategy that allowed the Ukrainians to retake thousands of square miles in the northeast of the Kharkiv region last fall after the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported for several months that they would launch an attack in Kherson.
Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews (Scotland), suggests that Ukraine will seek to break the “land bridge” between Russia and Crimea, moving from Zaporozhye towards Melitopol and the Sea of Azov. The success of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this direction would split the Russian troops in half and cut the supply lines to those units of the occupiers, which are located further to the west, in the direction of Russian-occupied Crimea.
However, Moscow, anticipating this direction of the assault, spent months building defensive fortifications in the Zaporozhye region. According to some analysts, this may force Ukrainians to try a different approach. O’Brien points out that the UAF has already proven that they are good at seeing where they can take advantage of the weaker sides of Russian defensive lines.
