On the eve of the 59th anniversary of the military coup that stifled freedoms for 21 years in Brazil, the Armed Forces are experiencing an image crisis. According to recent surveys, they have lost the respect of the population after assuming, in the Bolsonaro government, an unprecedented role in the federal government since redemocratization.
An AtlasIntel survey released on February 1st of this year showed that 41% of the population trust the military, 39% do not trust it, and 20% had no opinion about the Armed Forces. In the same survey, the National Congress and the Federal Superior Court (STF) had higher percentages than the military, both with 42% confidence.
However, Brazilians who do not trust the National Congress and the STF, according to the survey, total 57% and 47%, respectively, numbers higher than the index of distrust in the Armed Forces.
With 360,000 employees, the Armed Forces have a budget forecast of R$ 124.4 billion in 2023. Of this amount, 78.2% will be spent on personnel. Analysts believe that they will have much less influence in the government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), who again appointed a civilian to the Ministry of Defense, José Mucio Monteiro Filho, after four years of military leadership in the portfolio.
Anthropologist Piero Leirner, who has been researching the military environment for more than three decades, recalled that the National Congress and the STF were the “objects of the coup mob” and analyzed the survey data. “The ‘distrust’ fell on everyone. This for me is an interesting sign, as it may be evidence that what has been happening in recent times has had an effect: a kind of destabilization of the social perception of politics, institutions and such ‘rules of the game'”.
In the survey “The face of democracy”, which is carried out annually, it is possible to see the decrease in the popularity of the Armed Forces during the Bolsonaro government. In 2018, during the campaign, 31% of Brazilians said they had a lot of trust in the military. This index dropped to 29% in 2019; 26% in 2021; and 25% in 2022 (in 2020 there was no survey).
In 2008, a survey by the Association of Brazilian Magistrates (AMB) revealed that 75.5% of Brazilians trusted the Armed Forces. In 1995, a qualitative measurement carried out by the Vox Populi Institute gave a score of 3.2, out of a maximum of 5, for the military.
Sociologist Marcos Coimbra, founder and director of Vox Populi, recalls the survey carried out by the institute in 1995. “This number has certainly decreased over time, it was a high note. If we were to repeat exactly the same way of asking, it is very likely that this fall would be caught today. I remember that in the questions we noticed that the Armed Forces scared people, there were no feelings such as affection or any affection for this institution. It is an expensive institution, full of privileges and did not make political choices that would bring them closer to the population.”
For Coimbra, there is an interpretation of the population that “the military are idle” and the historic fall is justified by “the choices that the Armed Forces made, to associate themselves with a terrible character, who is disapproved of by most of the country. This bond it narrowed over time, on both sides. This citizen, Bolsonaro, cooperated to wear down the Armed Forces.”
“The prestige of the Armed Forces seems to have suffered some grooves, as a result of the institution’s intense involvement in the Bolsonaro government”, explains Ana Penido, a researcher at the Study Group on Defense and Security (Gedes-Unesp) and the Tricontinental Institute of Social Research, which proposes a reflection on the image of the institution.
“If you go to a SUS doctor and think that his care was bad, you can assess whether it was good or bad. In the case of the Armed Forces, the prestige they have is not related to their purpose, the Defense policy, the ability to protect or defend Brazil in the face of international conflicts”, explains Penido.
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The researcher then listed the reasons that may explain the approval ratings that the military has already achieved. “For example, when they bring water to isolated communities, when they vaccinate people in the face of a pandemic or carry out road works in the face of a disaster.”
For Piero Leirner, it is necessary to qualify research and analyzes to associate the drop in popularity of the Armed Forces with Bolsonaro. “In my opinion, this drop was due much more to the negative exposure that the military began to have in the press – first, little by little, with cases of overbilling, dulce de leche and Viagra, and then especially with the direct association with the 8th of January. They were operating all of this ‘within the margin of error’. That is, at the same time participating in the Government and in Bolsonaro’s raptures, but denying it all the time.”
Another perspective on the image of the military would be possible if research institutes carried out their surveys in other areas, argues Penido. “I am not aware of solid research with groups in which the Armed Forces have operated in the territory, such as the Garantee of Law and Order (GLO) operations in the peripheries. The same goes for their performance on the borders. I am also unaware of opinion polls on the reliability of the Armed Forces made with indigenous communities.”
positive communication
For anyone who thinks that the crimes committed by military personnel during the dictatorship in the country should serve for the Armed Forces to have a popularity close to zero, Piero Leirner does not bring good news.
“I think that most of the population doesn’t care about that. The timing was lost, this became a minority issue”, explains the anthropologist. The distance from the crimes committed during the dictatorship is one of the merits of the communication of the Armed Forces, according to Ana Penido.
“The war for public opinion is perhaps more important than the physical one. The Armed Forces have come to specialize entire sectors in areas such as psychological warfare, which some analysts now call ‘hybrid warfare’, which uses various tactics to destabilize national governments”, says the researcher.
“During the tragedy in Brasilia on January 8th, the military generally covered the destruction that was happening. Then there was the Yanomami crisis and they quickly left and started taking aid in planes. There are many images of the military helping to save the indigenous people, the same soldiers who were responsible for the Amazon, like the current senator Hamilton Mourão, who saw gold mining enter and stay in that region”, he concluded.
Editing: Rodrigo Durão Coelho
