Provided for in an agreement between party leaders, the vote in the Chamber of Deputies on the New Fiscal Framework (NAF) this Tuesday (23) is just the beginning of a series of movements that mark the activities of Congress this week.
As a Complementary Law, approval in the House requires at least an absolute majority of the House, equivalent to 257 votes – a level already reached in the vote on the urgency of the matter. Deputies have already presented amendments to the opinion of the rapporteur of the NAF, Cláudio Cajado (PP-BA).
The expectation, however, is that the majority will be rejected due to the political articulation made by the President of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL).
concurrent CPIs
Also this Tuesday, the three Parliamentary Commissions of Inquiry (CPIs) in the Chamber will meet again: the MST, the Manipulation in Football and the Americanas.
Installed last week, each of them must approve or modify the work plans that will be presented by the collegiate rapporteurs.
Bolsonaro’s former Minister of the Environment Ricardo Salles (PL-SP), rapporteur for the MST’s CPI, has already stated that he intends to call on governors who are opposed to the Landless Rural Workers’ Movement to present testimonies to the collegiate. The deputy works so that Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil), governor of Goiás and historic opponent of the movement, is one of the first to participate in this condition.
Another idea defended by Salles is to summon former members of the MST. It is possible that these requests will be voted on this Tuesday
The fourth simultaneous investigation involving parliamentarians, the Joint Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry (CPMI) into the January 8 attacks, should be installed next Thursday (25). There is the possibility that already during the installation some requirements will be voted on – this depends, however, on how much the negotiations and definitions for the group’s rapporteur advance until the day.
Interest rate
Originally thought to be presented only in the second half of the year, the New Fiscal Framework had its forwarding to Congress accelerated after the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank signaled that it would not lower the Selic rate, the basic interest rate, today on 13 .75%, one of the highest in the world.
Reducing the Selic is seen as essential by the government for the national economy to grow again. The Central Bank, however, has autonomy – it is not subject to the Executive – and defends the high level as necessary to contain inflation.
In the battle surrounding the reduction of the Selic rate, the government awaits not only the NAF vote in the Chamber, but also the release of the IPCA-15, an index that is considered the official inflation preview. The data should be presented by the IBGE on Thursday (25).
Since May 2022, the 12-month accumulated index measured by the IPCA-15 has been falling, but between March and April of this year the decrease was more pronounced than usual, going from 5.36% to 4.16%.
In Planalto, the economic team defends that, if the inflation deceleration curve is maintained, it will increase the pressure for the Central Bank to reduce the Selic rate, by emptying its main argument for maintaining high interest rates.
Editing: Rodrigo Durão Coelho
